Home|Our Difference|Our Services|Team LFA|Resources|Client Log-in|Contact Us|In the Community

Market Data Bank

4th Quarter 2016


Click image to enlarge

ECONOMY AND STOCKS STRONG
Large-U.S. company shares posted a 3.8% Q4 total return following 3.9% in Q3, 2.5% in Q2, and a 1.4% Q1 of 2016. A strong Q4 was attributed to the "Trump rally" and aided by an exceptional 3.5% rate of GDP growth in Q3, a strong earnings recovery in the S&P 500, and oil production cuts announced by OPEC.

 

 


Click image to enlarge

A GREAT FIVE YEARS
Over the five years ended December 30, 2016, the S&P 500 returned a total of 98%, in a great bull run. After trading sideways for about a year, from mid-2015 to mid-2016 — nosediving in two frightening double-digit descents — the S&P 500 broke out in the second half of 2016.

 


Click image to enlarge

ENERGY TOPS ALL SECTORS
For the 12 months ended December 30, 2016, the energy sector was a standout among stock sectors, recovering from 2015's oil price collapse. Telecom, the No. 2 performing sector, showed a 23.5% gain as investors sought dividend yield in lieu of record-low bond yields.

 


Click image to enlarge

INDEXES TRACKING ASSET CLASSES
In the five years ended December 30, 2016, large-cap U.S. stocks were the No. 1 performer among these 13 asset classes. A prudent investor would, by definition, own an array of asset classes and lag the S&P 500. But a broadly diversified investor also would not have performed as poorly as the worst-performing asset class.

 


Click image to enlarge

THIS EXPANSION VERSUS OTHERS
This chart of recessions and recoveries since 1957 versus stock prices shows the current expansion, at 91-months old, is only about two years shy of becoming the longest recovery in modern U.S. history. If nothing bad happens, this expansion stands a fair chance of becoming the longest on record.

 


Click image to enlarge

S&P 500 INDEX VS. EARNINGS¥
A Republican majority controls both chambers of the U.S. Congress and, under President-elect Donald J. Trump, a cut in corporate tax rates is expected to be enacted in 2017. As a result, strategists have begun raising earnings estimates on the 500 S&P companies, most recently to $142 per share.

 

Past performance of investments is not a very reliable indicator of future performance. ± Indices and ETFs representing asset classes are unmanaged and not recommendations for any specific investment. Foreign investing involves currency and political risk and foreign-country instability. Bonds offer a fixed rate of return while stocks fluctuate. Leading economic indicators from the Conference Board. S&P 500 earnings bottom-up operating earnings per share for 2015 (actual), 2016 (estimated) and 2017 (estimated) as of January 4, 2017: for 2017, $118.86; for 2018, $142. Sources: Yardeni Research, Inc. and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S survey of consensus estimates. Standard and Poor’s for index price data through January 4, 2017; and actual operating earnings data through 2016.

 

 
 
  

 

1st Quarter 2017
3rd Quarter 2016
2nd Quarter 2016
1st Quarter 2016
4th Quarter 2015

This article was written by a professional financial journalist for Larkspur Financial Advisors and is not intended as legal or investment advice.
@2017 Advisor Products Inc. All Rights Reserved.

 

© 2017 Larkspur Financial Advisors | 100 Tamal Plaza, Suite 110, Corte Madera, CA 94925 | All rights reserved
P: 415.924.6703 | F: 415.924.6723 Advisors@LarkspurFA.com |
Disclosure | Contact Us

Securities and advisory services offered through The Strategic Financial Alliance, Inc., (SFA), member FINRA/SIPC, which is otherwise unaffiliated with Larkspur Financial Advisors or LFA Holdings, Inc. Ronald Murphy, CLU, ChFC (CA Insurance License #0290052) is a Registered Principal and Investment Advisor Representative of SFA. J. Richard Arellano, CLU, ChFC (CA Insurance License #0186691), and Kevin Bartel (CA Insurance License #0J04584) are Registered Representatives and Investment Advisor Representatives of SFA.

We are licensed to sell Insurance Products in the following states: California, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Oregon, Texas, Utah, and Washington.
We are licensed to sell Securities in the following states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.